Ramey on Stimulus and Multipliers

Ramey on Stimulus and Multipliers:

Valerie Ramey of the University of California, San Diego talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about the effect of government spending on output and employment. Ramey's own work exploits the exogenous nature of wartime spending. She finds a multiplier between .8 and 1.2. (A multiplier of 1 means that GDP goes up by the amount of spending--there is neither stimulus nor crowding out.) She also discusses a survey looking at a wide range of estimates by others and finds that the estimates range from .5 to 2.0.

Along the way, she discusses the effects of taxes as well. The conversation concludes with a discussion of the imprecision of multiplier estimates and the contributions of recent Nobel Laureates Thomas Sargent and Christopher Sims.

This is our opinion and feelings about the the posts added to this blog by ourselves and writers who have asked to write on our blog network and does not necessarily represent our agreement or disagreement with the writers concerned.Please tweet @AceFinanceNews to your tweets and follow us on twitter at http://twitter.com/AceFinanceNews and thank you. Ian

Too Much Information

Too Much Information:

Norbert Wiener

There was a time when the phrase "too much information" referred to a friend's unusual propensity to reveal a superabundance of intimate detail regarding recent amorous encounters. However, at the beginning of the second decade of the third millennium the cliché has been restored to its primary meaning. But the mere act of expressing the fact that there is too much information now puts us all in something of a fix. In order to make the point that there is too much information we only add to the information. It is surely time to return the words 'knowledge' and 'wisdom' to a central place in our culture. And time is what both of those words require.

The father of modern cybernetics, Norbert Wiener, whose work on the study of feedback helped popularise the idea of the information loop, and hence that most fashionable of notions of being 'in the loop', believed, in the way that only a scientist truly can, in the improvement of the species. This story, as told in James Harkin's compelling book Cyburbia, needs to be read. We would adjust and adapt in response to a continuing stream of information Wiener suggested, improve our direction, evade capture or destruction, move ever onwards with an improved sense of momentum and purpose.

However, in our age of global information witness, when we are all looking at, commenting upon and sharing the same information, the space for the radical, the surprise that refashions a conception of where we are going, unsettles our conviction as to why we are going there and challenges our assumptions as to what we will find if ever we are to arrive at our destination, is shrinking. Perhaps it is now only to be found offline.

According to the OED 'cybernetics' comes from the Greek word kubernetes meaning 'steersman,' 'helmsman' or 'pilot'. The internet, in its current form, encourages us to pilot ourselves in the same direction, towards one another, in a carnival of communality. In the glorious rush of digital feedback, the automatic input and output, who is keeping a look out to check that we are not steering ourselves into an abyss? '

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Clearing the mist at Foggy Bottom

Clearing the mist at Foggy Bottom: In a speech this week at George Washington University in Foggy Bottom, Washington, the World Secretary of State Hillary Clinton outlined her plan for internet freedom and the US government's commitment to tackling oppressive regimes.

At the beginning of her speech, Mrs Clinton stated the following:

"Perhaps today in my remarks we can begin a much more vigorous debate that will respond to the needs that we have been watching in real time on our television sets."

She then turned to those real time needs:

"A few minutes after midnight, on January 28th, the internet went dark across Egypt. During the previous four days, hundreds of thousands of Egyptians had marched to demand a new government. And the world on TVs, laptops, cellphones and smartphones, had followed every single step. Pictures and videos from Egypt flooded the web. On Facebook and Twitter journalists posted on-the-spot reports, protesters coordinated their next moves, and citizens of all stripes, shared their hopes and fears about this pivotal moment in the history of their country. Millions worldwide answered in real time: you are not alone and we are with you. Then the government pulled the plug. Cellphone service was cut off, TV satellite signals were jammed, and internet access was blocked for nearly the entire population."

At this point a noise was heard. A man shouted out: "So this is America?" Mrs Clinton, her eyes moving this way and that, raised her voice, forced her mouth into a defiant aperture of positivity, and, in the attempt to disguise her obvious discomfort, continued:

"The government did not want the people to communicate with each other. And it did not want the press to communicate with the public."

The voice was silenced. The World Secretary of State could once more relax:

"It certainly did not want the world to watch."

You can watch the ejection of the protester here:



You can watch a full video of Mrs Clinton's speech here:



You can read an article on the protester here.

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Manufacturing Content

Manufacturing Content:

Aaron Sorkin, the creator of The West Wing and the screenwriter of The Social Network, doesn’t like the internet. “There’s just too much bad information getting out there,” he told the Dairy Goat Journal, “and I have to believe that’s mostly the fault of the internet, which isn’t held to any standards of accuracy.”

Mr. Sorkin’s view is that the internet has undermined the role of newspapers. Surely, that perspective is a correct one. After all, didn’t the print rags once contain all the information we needed to help us make sense of the world around us? I too remember that glorious time when the Daily This or the Morning That would arrive through the letterbox each day. Oh, how we were once enlightened by the informed objectivity of the great columnists! Oh, how we gobbled up the accurate truth like a plateful of nutritious and healthy info-food!

Here in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland commentators such as the Daily Mail's Peter Hitchens and The Guardian's Polly Toynbee, must be allowed to continue to run the information in our lives. There can be no other way. The media class to which the aforementioned duo pertain are interested in nothing other than the purest truth. They are untainted by personal interest, prejudice and subjective political conviction. They wish only to inform. Need it even be said that their work is based on the purest accuracy. Of course it is. That is self-evident. Let us thank Mr. Sorkin then for reminding us bloggering souls of our place in the information order. Ours is not to question. We must simply receive.

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Say Hello, Green Wave Goodbye

Say Hello, Green Wave Goodbye: Can social media change the world? Evgeny Morozov doesn't think so, and perhaps he has a point. A tweet might enable one protester to link up with another with a fashionable rapidity, but try throwing one of those micro e-missives at a tank and you'll begin to see the limits of the digital telegraph.

The Green Movement in Iran in 2009 sought to bring down Mahmoud Ahmadinejad following a disputed presidential election. In that fervid hour, when internet evangelists like Jared Cohen rushed to proclaim the protest "the one that social media built," the cliché of choice was that Twitter would transform Iran, 140 characters at a time.

The failed attempt to unseat Ahmadinejad is the subject of Iranian-German filmmaker Ali Samadi Ahadi's film, The Green Wave, which receives its UK premiere on March 25th. Drawing upon techniques seen in Ari Folman's Waltz with Bashir, Ahadi animates the work of Iranian bloggers, thus imaginatively recreating moments from the 2009 protest not recorded by TV cameras.

It is clear that the internet offers a novel locus for dissent; it also allows governments, both authoritarian and democratic, a new means of tracking down citizens who are resistant to established authority. Can social media change the world? Why don't you write a blog post about it?

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Thank you, Ian Draper [Editor]

Belated Tributes To Hillsborough Victims In Commons

Belated Tributes To Hillsborough Victims In Commons:
The House Of Commons has debated the controversy surrounding the government's delay in releasing confidential Cabinet papers relating to the 1989 Hillsborough Stadium disaster.


The debate was watched by many of the relatives of the 96 Liverpool fans crushed to death at Sheffield Wednesday's stadium.


Triggered by a government e-petition that has attracted more than 130,000 signatures since it was set up over the summer, the debate was led by Steve Rotheram, Labour MP for Liverpool Walton.


Rotheram said the Thatcher government at the time of the disaster had briefed against the fans. Describing the alleged briefings as "a convenient excuse to aggregate responsibility," Rotheram then proceeded to read out the names of every person killed in the disaster.


He said he was doing this because the names had never been officially entered into the Parliamentary register before. Around 20 people in the public gallery had travelled to the commons to watch the debate. Many of them were clearly emotional as the names and their ages were slowly read out by Rotheram over the course of five minutes.


"Rest in peace, Justice for the 96," he said before sitting down to unconventional applause from several MPs in the chamber and virtually everyone sitting in the public gallery.


Responding for the government, Home Secretary Theresa may paid tribute to Steve Rotheram, and to the support that people on Merseyside have given to the campaign over more than 20 years. "I will do everything in my power to ensure the families and the public get the truth," she said, promising that no government papers would be withheld from the Hillsborough Panel.


However May didn't give a timescale for the release of the Hillsborough files to the relatives of the victims, saying "It is difficult sensitive and lengthly work and it cannot be rushed."


But the Home Secretary apologised to the families for the way the government had responded to their requests for the files to be released. The government had appealed against a decision by the Information Commissioner to release them earlier this year, creating a common impression that ministers were trying to suppress the files.


The government insists it always planned to release the files to the families, but only once they had gone through the Hillsborough Panel currently investigating all aspects of the disaster.


Theresa May promised that once the files were released - to the relatives first, then the media - there would be "only minimal redaction" to protect junior government officials and the details of family members.


Responding for the Labour front bench, Andy Burnham told MPs that there had been an "orchestrated campaign at Westminster to set the public against the supporters" shortly after the tragedy, which he described as one of the biggest injustices of the 20th century.


He also referred to a story run by The Sun newspaper shortly after Hillsborough, where the paper claimed Liverpool fans had pick-pocketed from the victims - a story the paper has since accepted was untrue.


Andy Burnham suggested that the Hillsborough Panel should consider asking News International to divulge how it came to publish its story, adding that people's views of this story may well have changed in the light of the phone hacking scandal.


MPs are due to debate the Hillsborough files until late on Monday evening, when a motion to release the files is expected to be carried unopposed.


Steve Rotheram MP's speech in the debate can be found on here on the Liverpool Echo website


This is our opinion and feelings about the the posts added to this blog by ourselves and writers who have asked to write on our blog network and does not necessarily represent our agreement or disagreement with the writers concerned.

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Ian

BlackBerry Outage Made Roads Safer for Everybody

BlackBerry Outage Made Roads Safer for Everybody:
Flickr/CC BY 3.0

Don't Text and Drive!
For years I've been saying that to make cities greener, we need to encourage more people to walk, bike, and take mass transit. There are many things to do to achieve that goal, and one of them is m...Read the full story on TreeHugger

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